Who’s really selling this 30% dip? Short-term panic vs long-term conviction in a couple photos

We’re ~30% off the highs and everyone’s arguing “bull-market correction” vs “new bear market.” This is a look under the hood for one 12-hour window today (79 blocks, ~375k BTC spent, net –$185M realized PnL).

The stacked chart shows who is spending coins by age band. The dark blue area is coins <7d old; the warmer colors are older holders. Even as price grinds lower, ~94% of the BTC spent here comes from coins younger than a week, with heavy realized losses. 30–90d coins are also locking in big losses. In contrast, 180d+ cohorts are a small share of volume and, when they do move, they’re mostly realizing profits... not panic dumping.

In other words: this drawdown is being driven primarily by recent buyers and short-term traders puking coins at a loss, while long-term holders are barely flinching and selectively taking profit. That doesn’t guarantee we’ve found the floor, but on-chain it still looks more like a classic bull-market shakeout than full-cycle capitulation.