Signal of the week: The amount of Bitcoin sitting at an unrealized loss briefly exceeded 10 million BTC, reaching levels comparable to the depths of the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms. In both previous cycles, this milestone appeared near the cycle low, although not always at the exact bottom itself.
Bitcoin markets stabilised after one of the most stressful weeks in years. Liquidations fell to their lowest levels of 2026, exchange inflows were cut in half, and ETF outflows slowed significantly.& But the underlying picture has not healed and half of Bitcoin supply is still sitting at losses. Bitcoin continues to trade in territory that has previously marked major lows, but it may still be too early to conclude that the bottom is already in.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 24 (June 8–14): BII-W 46.2 — Elevated Repositioning
Positive signals: the acute pressure released
Liquidations collapsed from a daily average of $205 million last week to just $36.6 million. When forced selling exhausts itself, it removes a major source of downward pressure that can accelerate declines. At the same time, the share of long liquidations normalised to 43%, ending the extended streak of 80%+ long flushes that characterised the previous three weeks.
Exchange inflows also fell sharply, halving to around 21,000 BTC and returning to more typical levels. Weekly ETF outflows eased as well, dropping to $316 million from $1.7 billion a week earlier. Flows remain negative overall, but the pace of selling is nowhere near the historic levels seen in recent weeks, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually subsiding.
Negative signals: the structural damage from last week remains
The amount of Bitcoin sitting at an unrealized loss briefly exceeded 10 million BTC and even reached a new all-time high in absolute terms. As a result, this metric has now climbed to levels comparable to the bear market lows of 2018 and 2022.
Long-term holder (LTH) supply in profit has also fallen to 57%, approaching the 55% level seen at the 2022 cycle bottom and the 53% level recorded at the 2018 bottom. While this suggests that Bitcoin may already be nearing a cycle bottom, the broader weakness across the market indicates there could still be room for further downside.
LTH SOPR edged only slightly higher to 0.79, showing that long-term holders who are selling continue to do so at significant losses. Meanwhile, the realised loss density changed little from the previous week. In other words, losses have not meaningfully recovered. The main difference is that fewer investors are selling right now, which provides temporary relief but is generally a less reliable signal than an actual improvement in profitability.
Mixed signals: LTH supply is rising, but mostly due to coin ageing
LTH supply increased by 107,000 BTC this week. However, most of that increase appears to be the result of short-term holder (STH) coins aging into the long-term holder category rather than fresh accumulation by investors.
A good example is the 6-month to 1-year holder cohort. This group recently became the largest single supply cohort, accounting for 18% of circulating Bitcoin. Just three months ago, it represented only 11% of supply.
Notably, previous cycle bottoms formed when the 1-2 year holder cohort became the dominant group. That cohort currently accounts for 13% of circulating supply and continues to grow. While it has not yet become the largest cohort, the trend remains consistent with historical bottoming patterns.
What could happen next
The most immediate scenario appears to be consolidation. Bitcoin’s daily choppiness index recently fell to its lowest level since October 2023 before rebounding. Historically, similar moves have often been followed by periods of range-bound price action.
At the same time, the daily MACD is forming a bullish crossover, a signal that is generally consistent with short-term stabilisation or a modest recovery. For now, the $65,000 and $71,000 levels appear to be the most likely resistance zones for bulls.
On the downside, the 200-week SMA near $62,000 remains the key structural support level. A sustained break below $62,000 could open the path toward $54,000, where Bitcoin’s realised price currently sits. Realised price represents the average cost basis of all circulating Bitcoin and has historically been breached only very close to major bear market bottoms.
As a result, the most likely near-term outcome remains sideways trading within a relatively narrow range as the market adjusts to new price levels. The direction of the next major breakout will likely depend on whether institutional flows and stablecoin liquidity begin to reverse course.
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